Getting Rid of NSET's Part II. Is a RIF Coming to Jeju?

This morning I read in the KT that elementary school Native Speaker English Teacher's (NSET's) in Seoul are safe - for now. Below is the article in its entirety. (Emphasis mine)

No budget cut for foreign teachers at elementary schools

Foreign English teachers at elementary schools need not worry about losing their jobs at least for one more year.

The Seoul Metropolitan Office of Education said Tuesday that the city decided not to cut the budget allocated for foreign teachers at elementary schools. The budget for middle school teachers, however, will be cut by 2.3 billion won ($1.98 million).

In total, 29.2 billion won was allocated by the Seoul Metropolitan Council as next year’s budget for foreign teachers in elementary and middle schools.

Initially, the budget for elementary and middle schools was expected to be cut by a combined 4.9 billion won. The city council, however, decided to cut 2.3 billion won from middle schools and left the budget for elementary schools intact.

“The city council must have considered that the contracts for teachers working in middle schools expire in August. Some of those contracts will not be renewed in the fall semester. However, until then, they will not face any disadvantages in terms of salary,” said an official from the education office. On Dec. 8, the education office said it decided to cut 4.4 billion won from the budget for foreign English teachers in high schools. The budget cut was to maximize the cost efficiency of hiring foreign teachers, it explained.

Now if you read it closely, the next big hit will be on middle-school NSET's. Then, the elementary school NSET's will be subject to a Reduction-in-Force (RIF).

Why do I post this since I/we are on Jeju? I post this in my self-appointed role as prophet and all around seer-into-the-future. It is coming to Jeju ladies and gentlemen. Count on it.

If you are considering starting a job hunt back home or maybe in China - start it now.

If you are at the top of the pay scale on the island (Level 1+), I would start seriously planning for life after Jeju.

If you were surprised that they rehired you because of some problems you had at your previous school, start planning for life after Jeju.

I am NOT going too far out on a limb here when I predict that in March 2014 there will be fewer NSET's in public schools on Jeju. And those that are there may not be as experienced, or be able to command as high a salary, as their predecessors.

I would not be at all surprised, after factoring in the numbers being talked about up north, to see a 35% to 40% RIF of NSET's on Jeju within the next couple of years.

But that is just me. What the hell do I really know?